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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 7th, 2015–Feb 8th, 2015

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

A natural avalanche cycle is still ongoing in Alpine areas.  Cornices are large and failing in the warm temperatures triggering avalanches up to sz 3 on underlying slopes. 

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Temperatures are going to cool slightly over the next few days with freezing levels forecast to drop to 1700m.  There may be a few isolated flurries but little accumulation is expected.  Winds will continue to be moderate at higher elevations out of the SW.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural avalanches were observed throughout the day on Saturday.  Many of these slides were sz 1.5-2 and failing within the storm snow but there were also a few larger slides, likely triggerred by Cornice failures that were failing down deeper in the snowpack producing size 3 avalanches.  Most of these slides initiated in Alpine terrain and ran to the middle of their normal runouts.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 50cm of recent snow is overlying the 0131crust which continues to produce moderate to easy sheers on a layer of facets overlying the crust..  The 0131crust is being found up to 2900m on steep solar aspects and only up to 2200m on more polar aspects.  Warm temps, combined with the recent new snow and winds are building new windslabs and storm slabs that are skier triggerrable.  Some recent slide activity has shown evidence of stepping down to deeper layers such as the Dec 13th crust as well as the November rain crust way down in the snowpack.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.