Precipitation and wind forecasts have been highly variable and we have received less snow and wind than predicted. The new snow forecast for Thursday night will push us into a higher danger rating if it does show up - watch for rain effects to 2100m
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Thursday
Weather Forecast
Winds strong west with freezing level forecast in the 2100m range (we have seen freezing levels rising to 2250m in the Burstall area Wednesday PM). The area has received less new snow than the precip forecast predicted but there is another spike predicted for Thursday night with up to 15cm+ possible.
Avalanche Summary
Numerous loose, moist slides from steep lee terrain. One Size 2 SSL NE aspect Mt Smith-Dorrien, no other details.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 10cm of new snow at treeline with temperatures rising above zero degrees so rapid settlement and slab formation. Winds were generally light with occasional periods of strong southerly winds resulting in some redistribution of storm snow along ridgetops.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.