10cm of new snow is possible by Tuesday morning. Surface hoar, facets and sun crusts have now been buried and the new snow is not expected to bond well to any of them. Avalanche hazard could rise to CONSIDERABLE if more snow falls than is forecasted.
Confidence
Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain
Weather Forecast
Up to 10cm of new snow between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning. Winds expected to be light to moderate W to NW. Cool alpine temperatures expected.
Avalanche Summary
Nothing observed or reported.
Snowpack Summary
2 to 4cm of low density Hn overlies previous surfaces including SH, FC, HSL, SC and old tracks. Profile at 2200m indicates a well settled midpack with the basal FC/DH appearing to gain some strength. CTH(25) PC down 34cm was the only significant shear.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.