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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 13th, 2015–Mar 14th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Conflicting forecasts are making it difficult to nail down the hazard. Be prepared to field forecast and predict if the local hazard will spike. A HIGH rating at any elevation band isn't out of the question if precip amounts vary.

Confidence

Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

The winds will make another appearance tonight as a warm front arrives. Overnight gusts will hit 80km/hr from the SW. Overnight temps will be -2 at 2500m with a freezing level of 1600m. Forecasts vary slightly, but we should be prepared to see the warm front potentially arrive tomorrow with rain/wet flurries/snow and even stronger winds (100km+ at 2500m). 11cm's is expected at higher elevations. The freezing level will spike to 2300m.

Avalanche Summary

No activity today

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack was able to make it most of the because of last night's marginal re-freeze and the cloudy skies today. Pretty much the same situation as yesterday's discussion: below treeline is isothermal by mid afternoon with a surface re-freeze overnight. Treeline is a bit more aspect dependant in regards to the surface conditions. Solar aspects have a significant crust while polar aspects have a lighter temperature crust. The alpine is still a winter snowpack with thin crusts on solar aspects and hard wind slabs on most other aspects.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.