Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Mar 13 – 14, 2015Alberta Parks
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Archived · expired 12 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Conflicting forecasts are making it difficult to nail down the hazard. Be prepared to field forecast and predict if the local hazard will spike. A HIGH rating at any elevation band isn't out of the question if precip amounts vary.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3
    The snow at higher elevations will form windslabs very easily. Watch for freshly loaded features and keep an eye out for a "cakey" snow texture within the storm snow.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Saturated snow will be a concern at lower elevations. Avoid exposure to gully features.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–5
    New snow and/or rain load may be enough to wake this layer up again. Avoid any exposure to large overhead terrain if the forecast holds true. New, weak cornices are something to think about as a potential trigger.

Confidence

Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

The winds will make another appearance tonight as a warm front arrives. Overnight gusts will hit 80km/hr from the SW. Overnight temps will be -2 at 2500m with a freezing level of 1600m. Forecasts vary slightly, but we should be prepared to see the warm front potentially arrive tomorrow with rain/wet flurries/snow and even stronger winds (100km+ at 2500m). 11cm's is expected at higher elevations. The freezing level will spike to 2300m.

Avalanche Summary

No activity today

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack was able to make it most of the because of last night's marginal re-freeze and the cloudy skies today. Pretty much the same situation as yesterday's discussion: below treeline is isothermal by mid afternoon with a surface re-freeze overnight. Treeline is a bit more aspect dependant in regards to the surface conditions. Solar aspects have a significant crust while polar aspects have a lighter temperature crust. The alpine is still a winter snowpack with thin crusts on solar aspects and hard wind slabs on most other aspects.

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