Fingers crossed for new snow on Wednesday night!
Confidence
Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
On Wednesday expect mainly overcast skies. On Wednesday night and Thursday the region may see 10-15cm of moist snow with similar amounts accumulating again on Friday. On Wednesday the freezing level should drop from about 2800m to 2000m, and should remain at that elevation for the rest of the forecast period. Ridgetop winds should remain mainly moderate from the southwest.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday, warming and solar radiation triggered widespread loose wet avalanche activity in steeper, sun-exposed terrain. Large cornice collapses were also observed. Of note, warming also triggered a size 3.5 slab avalanche on the south face of Mt Currie. Similar action likely occurred on Tuesday. The gradual cooling trend will strengthen the upper snowpack making avalanches triggered by warming less likely.
Snowpack Summary
Extremely high freezing levels and solar radiation have left most surfaces moist or wet. This warming has also had a significant destabilizing effect on the snowpack. Cornices are also reported to be huge and collapse has become more likely with daytime warming. About 50-90cm below the surface, you'll likely find a rain crust which formed on January 28th. This crust is widespread and exists up to about 2050m. Where it still exists, the mid-January surface hoar layer may be found between 130 and 200 cm below the surface. The combination warm temperatures and subsequent gradual cooling is making avalanches failing on these deeper layers unlikely.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.