We're entering a stormy period with strong wind and snow expected through the forecast, this forecast is based on about 25 of new snow by Tuesday morning. It's time to retreat to simple wind sheltered terrain for the next few days as the snowpack adjusts to the new load.
10 to 25 cm of new snow with strong to extreme wind Monday night into Tuesday is likely to form slabs that could be fast and touchy Tuesday. Storm slabs will be hiding previously active wind slabs which may allow for step down triggering of larger avalanches.
The northwest coast is set to be the wettest zone in the province for the foreseeable future as a series of storms begin Monday night and continue through the weekend, it’s worth noting that there is quite a bit of wind in these systems too.
MONDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 1000 m, strong to extreme southwest wind, 10 to 25 cm of snow expected.
TUESDAY: A few clouds, freezing level around 600 m, strong northwest wind, trace of snow possible.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast, freezing level at valley bottom, moderate to strong southwest wind, 2 to 10 cm of snow possible during the day, 10 to 20 cm possible Wednesday Night.
THURSDAY: Overcast, freezing level around 800 m, moderate to strong southwest wind, 2 to 10 cm of snow possible.
Over the weekend wind slabs were widespread to size 2 with an average depth of 30 cm.
We got an observation from the Shames backcountry Saturday of some natural avalanches, more details here. There have been a few observations of natural cornice failures in the last few days, some are not having any result when they impact slopes below, others are producing small wind slabs.
We recently received a report of a very large (size 3.5) persistent slab avalanche that likley ran on February 5th. It ran naturally on a north/northwest facing feature at 1850 m, this avalanche failed on the January facets.
It's also worth noting that glide slabs continue to release randomly, a size 2.5 natural glide slab avalanche was reported from an east facing feature at 700 m near the Basalt Creek Rest Area east of Prince Rupert On Friday February 7th. Glide cracks have reportedly been opening and releasing glide slab avalanches. Avoid slopes with glide cracks, as they are unpredictable.
Open terrain continues to be heavily affected by strong wind from the west/northwest, but shifting winds could form slabs on a range of aspects. 30 cm of old storm snow is rapidly settling and gaining strength. A thin layer of facets that formed during the January cold snap is now 100-150 cm below the surface and an early season crust exists at the base of the snowpack. These layers produced a few large naturally triggered avalanches in early February but have more recently been nonreactive.
