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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 2nd, 2026–Mar 3rd, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Large avalanches rocked Rogers Pass over the weekend, with very prominent fracture lines littering the mountain-scape everywhere. Be very suspicious of any slope that has not avalanched.

Natural avalanche activity has decreased but human triggering remains likely.

See this MCR for a detailed avalanche summary.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain about how quickly persistent slabs are gaining strength.
  • We are confident that there are deep persistent slabs in the snowpack, but uncertain about how likely they are to trigger.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity has slowed down but avalanche control with explosives produced numerous avalanches from size 2 to 3.5 on Sunday.

The avalanche cycle on Friday saw numerous natural and explosive triggered avalanches up to size 4 running into valley bottom.

See the following link to a recent Mountain Conditions Report.

Snowpack Summary

Extreme S'ly winds redistributed ~70cm of new snow into thick wind slabs on leeward features across the Alpine. Solar aspects (SE through W) have a surface crust from recent sun.

The Feb 9 surface hoar (SH) is down 90-120 cm and remains reactive in snowpack testing. The Feb 9 SH sits over a crust on solar aspects.

The Jan 26th layer, composed of surface hoar/facets/crust, is buried down 130-160 cm. The largest surface hoar is preserved in sheltered areas below treeline.

Weather Summary

Unsettled weather arrives Tues afternoon, bringing flurries and gusty winds.

Tonight Cloudy. Low -4°C. Wind SW 30 gusting 50km/h. Freezing level (FZL) 1200m.

Tues Flurries, 10-15cm. High -3. Wind SW 25 gusting to 45km/h. FZL 1500m.

Wed - Flurries, 10cm. High -4°C. Ridge winds SW 20-45km/hr. FZL 1600m.

Thurs Flurries, 5-10cm. High -6°C. Ridge winds SW 20-35km/hr. FZL 1200m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Shooting cracks, whumpfs, and recent avalanches are strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.
  • If triggered, wind slabs may step down to deeper layers, causing larger avalanches.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried surface hoar.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.