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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 8th, 2023–Jan 9th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, St. Mary, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

While the likelihood of triggering a deep persistent layer may be decreasing, it is very difficult to predict where you will or will not trigger a large avalanche.

Continue to take a conservative approach while traveling in avalanche terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported in the region.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

The upper 30 to 50 cm of snow continues to settle and bond with mild temperatures. This sits over a generally weak and faceted mid and lower snowpack. A weak layer of facets and a crust buried in November is down 80 to 120 cm from the surface. The lower snowpack below this November weak layer is weak and highly facetted to the ground.

Treeline snow depths are roughly 140 to 160 cm.

Weather Summary

Sunday night

Cloudy with light snow, 0 to 5 cm. Light southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures 0 to -5 C.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with flurries, and trace amounts of snow. Light southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures -5 to -10 C.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud, no precipitation. Light west ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures -5 to -10 C.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud, no precipitation. Light ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures -5 to -10 C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Don't let the desire for deep powder pull you into high consequence terrain.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.