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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2023–Jan 17th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland, Birkenhead, Duffey, South Chilcotin, Stein, Taseko.

Avalanche hazard may seem to be improving under foot; however be mindful that deep instabilities remain. Hurley seems to be the bulls-eye for a poor snowpack structure and it's reflected in the danger ratings. Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

The snowpack structure, with its mid and basal problems, mean reports remain relevant, even if several days old.

No new avalanche reports from Sunday.

On Saturday Hurley was the bulls-eye for avalanche activity on persistent weak layers in the middle and bottom of the snowpack. Surface hoar on the Christmas crust was releasing naturally, intentially, remotely, and with direct human triggers on gentle slopes near treeline (1800 to 1900 m) with crowns up to 80 cm thick. Some natural avalanches size 3 to 3.5 and ran full path from the alpine to valley bottom.

Additionally Storm Slabs size 2 to 3 were reported releasing at the bottom of the storm snow. One large wind slab (size 2.5) involved the weak facets at the bottom of the snowpack.

On Friday, snowcats remotely triggered numerous size 2.5 persistent slab avalanches on surprisingly low angel terrain from up to 150 m away. Avalanches occurred on a crust covered by surface hoar found up to 1900 on north and easterly aspects. See MIN for good photos and more details.

Thanks for the observations and please continue to post your reports and photos to the Mountain Information Network. It is really helpful for forecasters!

Snowpack Summary

The region's generally weak snowpack structure remains.

Last week's 20-30 cm of snow and southerly winds means wind slabs may linger. Below 1900 m there was a mix of rain and snow which is freezing into a crust.

Mid-pack: 50 to 70 cm down is a crust formed in late December. Between 1900 and 1700 m surface hoar can be found above this crust which was reactive with the new snow load on Friday. This crust varies in thickness throughout the terrain and elevation.

Lower-pack: There is a widespread weak layer of facets and depth hoar at the bottom of the snowpack. Snowpack depths around treeline are about 150-180 cm deep. The snowpack below treeline is very shallow and faceted.

Weather Summary

Monday Night: Cloudy. Dry. Light southwest wind. Treeline temps around -5 C.

Tuesday: Nil to a few cm of new snow. Mainly cloudy. Freezing level near 1200m. Mostly cloudy. Treeline temperatures -2 to -5 C. Light to moderate southwest wind.

Wednesday

South wind strengthens to moderate, strong at high elevations. 5 to 10 cm of new snow. Freezing level briefly rising to near 1300 m. Mostly cloudy. Treeline temperatures around -5 C.

Thursday

Mix sun and cloud. Dry. Cooler with treeline temps around -10 C. Light west wind.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
  • Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low-angle, well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.