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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 13th, 2022–Dec 14th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

It's Spring time in December! Warm, clear weather will make travel conditions favourable for the next few days but keep in mind that continuous warm temperatures could destabilize both the upper and lower snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported over the weekend though evidence of a small natural avalanche cycle was reported through the most recent storm.

Whumpfing was reported from the Mt. Washington area on Sunday in recent Mountain Information Network reports.

Keep sharing your observations by submitting a MIN report! They are especially helpful in the early season when snowpack information can be limited.

Snowpack Summary

The combination of warm temperatures and solar input will destabilize the upper snowpack and potentially the lower snowpack over the next few days. North winds could act to temper this warming but now is a good time to manage overhead hazard and use caution in large terrain features.

Higher elevation snowpack depths range from 100-140cm. A layer exists in the lower snowpack that is comprised of a crust and weak, sugary facet crystals. Avalanche professionals in the area reported moderate Sudden Planar snowpack tests and whumpfing on this layer over the weekend. This could be something to investigate further before committing to larger pieces of terrain.

Weather Summary

Tuesday night

Partly cloudy. Trace amounts of new snow. Winds from the north at 10km/h. Temperature at -4˚C. 

Wednesday

Mostly clear skies. Winds from the northwest at 15km/h. A strong inversion will bring alpine temperatures up to +2˚C. 

Thursday

Mostly clear skies. Winds from the northwest at 25km/h. Alpine temperatures up to +3˚C. 

Friday

Mostly clear skies. Winds from the northwest at 15km/h. Alpine temperatures up to +3˚C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.
  • In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
  • Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.