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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2022–Jan 1st, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos, North Rockies, McBride, Quesnel, Sugarbowl, Kakwa, McGregor, Pine Pass, Renshaw, Robson, Tumbler.

With a problematic persistent layer, it's critical to stay disciplined and choose only well-supported, low-consequence lines.

A moderate danger rating means that large human-triggered avalanches are possible in isolated areas.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche was observed near Renshaw on a steep northeasterly slope on Friday. Old debris from a small wind slab was also reported near McBride from a convex wind-loaded slope. Earlier this week, a rider was accidentally caught in a large avalanche near Yanks Peak. The avalanche was triggered near a rock outcrop and most of the slope slid.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Between 15-20 cm of light snow is now overlying the recent dense storm snow. New snow has been redistributed to northerly aspects at higher elevations. Fresh soft slabs may not bond well to previous surfaces, such as hard wind-pressed snow or a crust.

Down 40-60 cm, the mid-December widespread weak layer of facets grains and /or surface hoar can be found. This layer was responsible for large natural and human-triggered avalanches since Dec 27 in the Cariboos.

At lower elevations, a rain crust is present 10-20 cm from the surface. The November weak layer lies around 75 to 160 cm below the surface. There is still a potential for smaller avalanches to step down to this deeper layer.

The snowpack is still fairly thin and faceted, with roughly 150 to 175 cm at treeline.

Weather Summary

Periods of snow will persist overnight as the coastal system weakens. An upper ridge will begin to build late Sunday, and fair weather is expected for the weekdays.

Saturday

Light snow 2 cm, westerly ridge winds at 50 km/h, treeline temperatures around -8 °C. Freezing level dropping to valley bottom.

Sunday

Cloudy, flurries, northwesterly ridge winds up to 45 km/, treeline temperatures around -5 °C. Freezing level around 750 m.

Monday

Mainly sunny, no precipitation, southwesterly ridge winds at 40 km/, treeline temperatures around -10 °C.

Tuesday

Mainly sunny, no precipitation, southwesterly ridge winds at 30 km/, treeline temperatures around -12 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Choose simple, low-angle, well supported terrain without convexities.
  • Be especially cautious near rock outcroppings, on steep convexities and anywhere the snowpack feels thinner than average.
  • Pay attention to the wind, once it starts to blow fresh sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.