Check the forecaster blog for more info on the current conditions.
Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Sunday: Expect flurries to taper early in the day, giving way to mixed skies. As skies lift, expect winds to pick up, but remain southwesterly. More flurries could develop late in the day with freezing levels reaching 800m. Monday & Tuesday: More weak disturbances will move through the region, giving mixed skies and localized flurries. Southwest winds persist. Freezing levels will slowly rise and could reach 1500m by the end of the period.
Avalanche Summary
We have reports of several human triggered avalanches up to size 2.0 from the northern part of the region. These are running on the early December interface, predominantly on shady aspects between 1600-2100m.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 15cm of new snow has fallen in the past 24hrs. This overlies soft slabs on North through East aspects and some spotty, small surface hoar/surface facets in sheltered locations at treeline and below. This brings the total load over the early December surface hoar to 30cm in the South and 65cm in the North. This surface hoar layer is still producing sudden results in stability tests and a whole block rutchblock 4 was also observed. This is certainly the layer to watch; check out the forecaster blog for more info/ideas on this current problem. The midpack is well consolidated and strong.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.