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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2022–Jan 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

There is quite a bit of variability in the forecast models right now.

If the current forecast holds true, expect avalanches to be reaching valley bottom runouts Monday.

Weather Forecast

Expect the incoming storm to start picking up steam tonight.

Tonight: Periods of snow, 12cm. Freezing level 1200m. Wind SW-25 km/h

Mon: Snow, 14cm. Fzl 1500m. Wind SW 25 gusting to 55 km/h

Tues: Cloudy with clear periods, no precip. Fzl 600m. Wind mainly light with moderate gusts.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack is settling and rounding with warm temps and mod/strong SW winds. The Jan11 surface hoar layer has been observed up to 4-6mm around treeline, and is now down 20-40cm. The Dec 1 crust is buried up to 2m deep with weak, faceted snow above and below it.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed in the highway corridor today.

Last week's storm triggered numerous very large avalanches up to size 4.0. There is potential for a repeat of this event if enough load is added with the storm incoming tonight and tomorrow.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.