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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2020–Jan 14th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast.

It is uncertain how well the recent storm snow is bonding with the old surface. Best to give the snowpack time to stabilize and gain strength before committing to bigger avalanche terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

After a stormy period it looks like the intensity of the weather will briefly back off until Tuesday night before a series of storms line up for the rest of the week and into the weekend.

MONDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, light northwest wind at most elevations, moderate west wind at ridgetop, no significant precipitation expected.

TUESDAY: Overcast, freezing level at valley bottom, light west/northwest wind at most elevations, moderate west wind at ridgetop, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible during the day, 8 to 15 cm possible Tuesday night.

WEDNESDAY: Broken cloud cover at dawn with some clearing in the afternoon, freezing level at valley bottom, strong south/southeast wind, 1 to 3 cm of snow possible during the day, 5 to 15 cm of snow Wednesday night.

THURSDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 500 m, strong south/southwest wind, 3 to 6 cm of snow possible.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday storm slabs were quite touchy, more details in these MIN reports. Natural storm slab avalanches with crowns up to 40 cm in depth were also reported.

On Saturday, a few small (up to size 1.5) explosive triggered storm slab avalanches were reported.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 100 cm of snow fell over the last few days with moderate to strong wind first out of the south, then out of the north. There is uncertainty how well the new snow will bond with the old snow surface, as it is resting on a hard melt-freeze crust below 1500 m and potentially feathery surface hoar above the crust. Assess the bond of the recent snow before committing to avalanche terrain and travel conservatively.

Terrain and Travel

  • Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
  • Give the new snow time to settle and stabilize before pushing into bigger terrain.
  • Avoid terrain traps where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.