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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2026–Jan 14th, 2026

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary, Purcells, Bonnington, Grohman, Kootenay Pass, Norns, Ymir, Crawford, Kokanee, Valhalla, Whatshan.

There is uncertainty on how prolonged warming will impact an already wet and weak snowpack.

Stick to simple terrain and avoid exposure to overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate

  • Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, numerous natural and skier-triggered avalanches (size 1-2) were observed with precipitation, wind, and warming. Observations were limited by stormy conditions.

Preliminary reports on Tuesday indicate that a natural avalanche cycle occurred as freezing levels rose to near mountain top.

Looking forward to Wednesday, warm temperatures and sun will continue to destabilize an already weak snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Rain and warm temperatures have created a wet snow surface to at least 2300 m. A weak crust may form on the surface from clear skies overnight. In the alpine, up to 40 cm of recent snow has been redistributed by strong southwest winds.

A weak surface hoar layer currently buried 50 to 120 cm has been the failure layer in many recent avalanches. On south-facing slopes, this layer is a sun crust.

The remaining snowpack is generally well-bonded and consolidated, with multiple crust layers present.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Freezing level 3400 m.

Wednesday
Mostly sunny. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Freezing level 3100 m.

Thursday
Mostly sunny. 50 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1300 m.

Friday
Sunny. 30 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 2000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeply buried weak layers and result in very large avalanches.
  • Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
  • Keep in mind that the high density of wet avalanches can make them destructive.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.