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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 7th, 2021–Dec 8th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Recent snow will be most reactive where it sits on the icy crust. Expect wind loading at ridge crest and in cross loaded terrain. Keep your head up - variable winds may have loaded unexpected features. 

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

A cold front brings snow and strong winds overnight. Wednesday afternoon will see clearing skies and calmer conditions as the front moves out, replaced by a weak high pressure system.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Light snow beginning overnight, up to 3cm by Wednesday morning. Strong southwest winds, freezing levels at valley bottom. 

WEDNESDAY: Snow continues with 2-10cm over the day. Winds increase to extreme south westerlies. Freezing levels rise to 1500m, alpine highs of -3. 

THURSDAY: Flurries continue, with light westerlies. Freezing levels below 500m. Alpine highs of -9. 

FRIDAY: Cloudy skies with a chance of flurries. Light westerly winds. Alpine high of -9.

Avalanche Summary

Nearby in the Lizard-Flathead area, numerous skier triggered and natural wind slab (to size 2) and loose dry (to size 1) avalanches have been observed over the last 3 days. 

On Sunday, loose dry avalanches were observed out of steep sheltered terrain features. Size 1-1.5 wind slab avalanches were observed in immediate lee features at ridge crest. 

Note there are very few field observations this early in the season. If you venture out into the mountains, please share your observations and/or photos on the Mountain Information Network!

Snowpack Summary

15-30cm of low density snowfall sits over a thick and supportive crust, on all aspects below 2400m. Moderate to strong westerly winds continue to redistribute this new snow into deeper deposits in lee features in the alpine and treeline. 

The mid November crusts sit 20-40cm above the ground below 2300m. Last week's heavy rain saturated the snowpack and has begun to break down this crust at treeline and below, creating a cohesive lower snowpack.

Snowpack depths range from 10-80 cm at treeline elevations. The snowpack tapers quickly below 1900m, significantly diminished by the rain event.

Terrain and Travel

  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
  • Avoid slopes that sound hollow or drum-like.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.