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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 5th, 2021–Dec 6th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Choose terrain sheltered from the wind, and avoid thin, rocky start zones. Right now, wind slabs are the common problem, but triggering a high consequence, deep slab avalanche is possible. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Possible trace of snow. Light northwest wind. Alpine temperatures around -14

Monday: Scattered clouds, higher cloud rolling in over the day. No new snow expected. Variable light winds. Alpine low around -12 C, warming over the day, setting up a possible temperature inversion.

Tuesday: Overcast. 5-10 cm of snow expected. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Alpine temperatures above -10 C with possible temperature inversion.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. 0-5 cm of snow expected. Strong southwest winds. Alpine temperatures around -13. 

Avalanche Summary

A size 3 avalanche was reported in the Hankin-Evelyn area, failing near the ground. This has us thinking about the potential for a deep persistent weak layer.

This Mountain Information Network (MIN), post (and the two others pinned near it), paint a great picture of the current conditions at Hankin-Evelyn.

Reports in the region remain limited. A lack of information may not actually mean there is a lack of avalanche activity. 

Snowpack Summary

There are recent reports of large to very large avalanches running on or near the ground in the Bear Pass area and around Smithers. We don't know how widespread this problem may be, or if both events even reflect the same avalanche problem, but we are definitely keeping an eye on it, and would be avoiding large features and areas with thin to thick snowpack transitions for now. 

This snowpack summary is mostly speculative, as there is very little information in this region at the moment:) If you have been getting out in the backcountry, we'd love to see a photo or a quick story of your day posted to the Mountain Information Network. 

Due to recent, variable winds, you may find wind slabs on many aspects, and on both sides of ridges. Some exposed areas may be stripped back to the Nov 30/Dec 1 Crust. This crust has been reported up to 1600 m in the south end of the region.

The mid snowpack may be in a state of confusion at the moment. There may be moist snow under the Nov 30/Dec 1 Crust. The snowpack was previously expected to be gaining strength with consistent new snow load and warm temperatures, but recent cold temperatures are likely promoting faceting, especially around crusts.

Treeline snow depths are estimated to be 100-150 cm.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Avoid lee and cross-loaded slopes at and above treeline.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.