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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 22nd, 2021–Dec 23rd, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

The current storm will ease off Thursday morning. In areas where there is more than 30 cm new snow, increase the danger rating to HIGH. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

A low-pressure system over the Gulf of Alaska continues southwards, bringing moderate snow until Thursday evening. Arctic air will return late Thursday night, with bitterly cold and drier conditions for the weekend.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Snow 10-15 cm / Strong southerly wind / Low of -7 at 2000 m.

THURSDAY: Flurries 5 cm / Moderate west wind / High of -14 at 2000 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy / Light southwest wind / High of -18 at 2000 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy / Light southwest wind / High of -22 at 2000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Few observations were reported Wednesday due to poor visibility, but we suspected that natural avalanches occurred in the alpine. Natural dry loose avalanches were reported out of steep terrain (size 1) in treeline and below treeline. 

If you go out in the mountains, please consider filling out a Mountain Information Network report.

Snowpack Summary

By the end of this storm, 25-40 cm of very light snow will have formed touchy soft slabs at all elevations/aspects. Recent strong alpine wind has also created firm wind slabs in alpine and open areas at treeline. Prior to this storm, cold temperature in the valley was prone to develop weak surface snow grains (surface hoar) in sheltered areas at treeline and below.

A concerning facet/crust layer, developed in early December, is now buried between 60-100 cm down. This layer generally exists below 1800 m and is most concerning in the area west of Blue River. In some places, the crust starts to decompose and show sporadic test results.

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.