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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 26th, 2022–Mar 27th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Watch for changing conditions throughout the day as you move through elevation bands. 

Rain at lower elevations increases potential for wet avalanche activity, while storm slabs may build at treeline and above.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain. Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Freezing levels rise to 1800-2000 m overnight, with up to 10-20 cm expected above and rain below. Freezing levels around 1500 m. Moderate southerly winds.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with 5-15 cm of snow. Freezing levels remain high, around 2000 m. Moderate to strong southwesterly winds. 

MONDAY: Another 5-15 cm possible overnight. Clearing during the day with flurries delivering up to 5 cm, freezing levels remain around 1500-1800 m. Light northeast winds.

TUESDAY: Mostly clear with increasing cloud. Light southwesterly winds. Freezing levels reach 2500 m. 

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, isolated small wind slabs and cornice falls were reported at treeline and alpine elevations. 

Warm temperatures, rain and sun on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday produced large wet avalanches on all aspects below the freezing line, and on steep sun affected slopes. Similar activity is expected with this approaching weather system. Human and naturally triggered cornice falls were also reported over the week. Cornices are expected to be weak and reactive to human triggers. 

A large avalanche was reported on a steep alpine slope near Blackcomb on Thursday, likely failing on the mid February weak layer, now buried around 80 cm deep. While the trigger is unknown, it's likely that warming and strong sun had weakened the snowpack. 

Snowpack Summary

Mixed precipitation and snow will fall on a melt freeze crust that extends into the alpine on all aspects to 2000-2500 m and on south facing slopes to mountain top. On shaded aspects new snow will sit over wind affected surfaces. Lower elevations will likely see moist surfaces as rain breaks down the crust. 

40 to 90 cm overlies the mid March interfaces. This layer exists as surface hoar in shady, wind-sheltered areas and a hard crust on sun-exposed slopes into the alpine. Several other weak layers exist in the upper and mid snowpack, reports suggest these layers are bonding well and avalanche activity is unlikely except from large loads like cornice falls. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.