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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2024–Jan 30th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies, Akamina, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

A rain-soaked snowpack will continue to create dangerous avalanche conditions and poor riding quality.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Observations have been limited, but we suspect a widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred over the past few days as rain impacted the snowpack.

If poor riding quality doesn't deter you on Tuesday, keep in mind that human-triggered avalanches remain likely. Avoid overhead exposure, large natural avalanches have the potential to entrain significant mass and run to valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

Rain has created a moist or wet upper snowpack at all elevations. A weak surface crust may have formed overnight at upper elevations.

There is a layer of sugary facets that are buried 30-50 cm deep and in some places sits on a crust from December. This layer has been reactive in snowpack tests.

The lower snowpack contains a series of crusts and faceted snow. Expect snow depth at treeline to be 70 to 120 cm.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Cloudy with clear periods, no new precipitation. Alpine wind southwest 20 to 70 km/h. Treeline temperature 2 °C, freezing level 2800 m.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud, no new precipitation. Alpine wind sotuhwest 20 to 50 km/h. Treeline temperature 1 °C, freezing level 2500 m.

Wednesday

Sunny with cloudy periods, no new precipitation. Alpine wind wind from the southwest. Treeline temperature 2 °C, freezing level 3000 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with sunny periods, no new precipitation. Alpine wind light from the southwest. Treeline temperature 1 °C, freezing level 2500 m

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.