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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 28th, 2024–Jan 29th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Heavy rain and extreme winds are forecast to continue; anticipate the potential for loose wet avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Saturday: Small loose wet avalanches were observed releasing out of steep, rocky terrain around treeline, near Mt. Washington

Friday: The field team reported seeing numerous small loose wet avalanches in the Mt. Arrowsmith area. For more details check out their MIN.

With the current warm and very wet conditions hitting the Island, we suspect a cycle of loose wet avalanches will continue.

Snowpack Summary

Rain has saturated the snowpack right to mountaintop elevations, melting out the snowpack below treeline almost entirely, and leaving it mostly below the threshold for producing avalanches.

We suspect what remains of the snowpack at upper elevations is mostly isothermal.

The potential for loose wet avalanches to release due to continued heavy rain and warm temperatures continues.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Cloudy with heavy rain, southwest alpine winds 100 km/h, treeline temperature 10°C, freezing levels around 2800 m.

Monday

Cloudy with very heavy rain, south alpine winds 90 km/h, treeline temperature 8°C, freezing levels around 2300 m.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy with light to moderate rain, southwest alpine winds 30-50 km/h, treeline temperature 4°C, freezing levels around 1900 m.

Wednesday

Cloudy with moderate to heavy rain, southwest alpine winds 80-90 km/h, treeline temperature 8°C, freezing levels around 2200 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.