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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 30th, 2024–Jan 31st, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard.

Until cold temperatures lock in this hot mess of a snowpack, dangerous avalanche conditions with persist.

It's a good idea to avoid avalanche terrain and spend time at the ski resort.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred in the past few days as rain impacted the snowpack. Numerous large (size 2-3) wet slab and wet loose avalanches have been reported from all aspects and elevations.

Until the snowpack gets locked in by cold temperatures, human-triggered avalanches remain likely and large natural avalanches are possible. Avoid overhead exposure, large natural avalanches could entrain significant mass and run to valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

Rain has created a moist or wet upper snowpack at all elevations. A weak surface crust may have formed overnight but will break down quickly throughout the day.

Roughly 40 to 50 cm of snow from last week sits over various old surfaces. In some areas, it is slow to bond due to sugary facets.

Near the bottom of the snowpack, there are a series of crusts and facets that are more prominent in shallow areas.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Clear periods. Alpine wind 10 to 30 km/h from the southwest. Treeline temperature 1 °C, freezing level 3000 m.

Wednesday

Mainly sunny. Alpine wind light from the southwest. Treeline temperature 2 °C, freeing level 3000 m.

Thursday

Sunny with increasing cloud cover. Alpine wind 15 to 30 km/h fro the south. Treeline temperature 1 °C, freezing level 2600 m.

Friday

Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries, trace accumulation. Alpine wind southwest 10 to 30 km/h. Treeline temperature 0 °C, freezing level 2000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.