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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 3rd, 2024–Feb 4th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Reactive slabs are expected as new snow falls over a crust. Highest snowfall amounts are expected in the east.

Choose conservative terrain until storm snow has had time to bond.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

We expect avalanche activity to increase on Sunday with cooler temperatures and fresh snowfall.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30 cm of storm snow is expected to fall by Sunday afternoon in the Crowsnest Pass and eastern terrain, the Lizard range will likely see around 20 cm. This snow accumulates over a crust and may not bond well.

The middle of the snowpack is generally well bonded in the Lizard and Flathead areas. In the Crowsnest Pass and Elkford areas there is a layer of sugary facets that are buried 30-50 cm deep and in some places may sit on a crust. Avalanches on this layer are unlikely, but we continued to monitor it.

The lower snowpack contains a series of crusts and faceted snow that are more prominent in shallow areas in the east and north of this forecast region.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy with 10 cm of snow likely in the Lizard Range, and up to 20 cm possible in the Crowsnest Pass. Northeast winds 30-60 km/h. Freezing levels drop to valley bottom.

Sunday

Mainly cloudy with flurries tapering off by midday. Freezing levels around 1000 m, treeline temperatures of -9 °C. Southwest winds 10-30 km/h.

Monday

A mix of sun and cloud. Freezing levels around 1000 m, treeline temperatures of -9 °C. Southwest winds 10-40 km/h.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud. Freezing levels reach 1500 m, treeline temperatures of -5 °C. Southwest winds 20-50 km/h.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.