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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 1st, 2024–Apr 2nd, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Rising freezing levels and warm temperatures will weaken the snowpack and increase avalanche hazard as the day progresses.

Travel early and avoid solar aspects by midday.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday two people had a close call on Ursus Minor, narrowly being missed by a sz 2.0 which then launched over the cliffs below.

Also on Sunday, a skier was taken for a ride on Youngs Peak, and another triggered a large cornice along the ridge line.

Another close call with a cornice occurred along the ridgeline of Cheops on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20cm of settled snow remains dry on Northerly aspects. A crust forms a widespread firm surface below 1700m and extends into the alpine on solar aspects.

The Feb 3rd crust/facet layer persists 80-140cm down. The mid and lower snowpack is well settled and strong with an average depth of snow of ~230cm at tree line.

Weather Summary

Mainly cloudy as warm airmass moves into our area on Tuesday morning, with freezing levels rising to 2600m with 30-60km/hr SW winds. Tuesday evening into Wednesday 10-15cm of snow is expected to fall at higher elevations with a chance of rain at lower elevations.

The freezing level will drop back down on Wednesday as light Northerly winds cool the region back down.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Remember that the snowpack will be significantly different at higher elevations than lower down.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, it is raining, or solar radiation is strong.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.