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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 2nd, 2020–Dec 3rd, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

The snowpack doesn't like rapid change. The avalanche danger remains elevated due to sustained warm temperatures. Watch for signs of instability and be very conservative with your terrain selection. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

Summer in December?

Thursday: Mainly cloudy. Treeline temperatures near +5 and ridgetop wind 20-30 km/hr from the South. Freezing levels 2900 m. 

Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. Treeline temperatures near +7 and ridgetop wind light from the southeast. Freezing levels 2900 m.

Saturday: Cloudy with sunny periods and light rain. Treeline temperatures near +9 and ridgetop wind moderate to strong from the southeast. Freezing levels 3200 m. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations were reported but I suspect some natural avalanche activity occurred on Wednesday.

On Thursday I suspect loose wet avalanches to continue with sustained warming. They can gain mass and push you into ugly terrain like gully features which can be hard to escape. Once temperatures start to drop the snowpack will likely strengthen.

Have you been out and about in the mountains? If so please submit to the Mountain Information Network (MIN). It doesn't have to be technical it can be as simple as a photo. Photos are especially helpful! Sending out a big thank you to the already submitted MIN's this season. Thanks everyone!

Snowpack Summary

Recent sun and very warm alpine temperatures have had the greatest impact on the snowpack. This rapid warming likely increased slab development above 1300 m. Deep pockets of wind slab may linger on leeward slopes at upper elevations. 

Below 1200 m a soggy snowpack may exist. Cooler temperatures overnight may form a crust on all aspects and elevations but I suspect with the continued warming that crust will disappear quickly.

Snowpack depth rapidly changes with elevation and the snow line currently sits at around 900 m. Its near 100 cm around 1000 m between 150 to 200 cm near the mountain tops.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.