Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Feb 12 – 13, 2021
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Archived · expired 6 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low

Highlights

Keep your objectives short and close to home if traveling in the Back Country.  Small injuries will have serious consequences with the frigid temperatures.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3

    Recent windslab activity is noted in very high elevation windloaded ridgetop features. It seems to require a large trigger such as cornice failures to initiate or potentially a shallow location where a skiers weight may be enough. 

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Cold temperatures are making cornices brittle and prone to failure. Keep a healthy distance away both when traveling below, or near corniced features.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Surface snow continues to lose cohesion and structure making specific areas susceptible to light triggers like direct solar influence, and excitable riders. Sluff awareness and management will be very important in steep and/or confined lines.

Weather Forecast

The next two days will remain cold, -20 to -30C, no new snow, relatively sunny, and light NE winds. Sunday to Tuesday it is warming up a little bit each day where maybe it might be -7C on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

The cold continues to promote rapid facetting in the upper 40cm. This is slowing slab development within the the recent Feb 3rd 40cm of storm surface snow. The mid-pack has remained strong and supportive but is showing signs of loosing strength with the prolonged arctic influence, especially where it is shallow.

Avalanche Summary

Thursday's field patrol to the Icefields noted numerous windslabs in the high alpine, cornice triggered, 50-90cm deep and 48-72 hours old. A loose dry widespread cycle up to size 2 occurred more recently, all elevations, steep rocky terrain, with some being triggered by the sun but not all.

Confidence

Due to the quality of field observations

Regions covered