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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2021–Jan 13th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

The snowpack will need time to adjust, settle and stabilize. Don't let the sunny breaks lure you into aggressive terrain as reactive storm and winds slabs may exist in the high alpine post storm.  

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels. Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

The storm will start to diminish overnight as a ridge of high pressure builds on Wednesday bringing dryer and cooler conditions. 

Tuesday Night: Another 20 to 30 mm of precipitation with freezing levels peaking at 2000 m until early Wednesday morning then falling to 700 m. Ridgetop wind strong from the southwest.

Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud. Treeline temperatures near 0 degrees and freezing level 700 m.

Thursday/ Friday: Cloudy with light precipitation. Treeline temperatures +4. Freezing level 2400 m and falling to 1700 m on Friday. Ridgetop wind strong and gusty from the West.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche reports on Tuesday.

Natural avalanche activity and human triggered avalanches may persist in the alpine after the storm on Wednesday. 

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm could bring up to 100 mm of precipitation by early Wednesday morning, with it falling mostly as rain to the mountain tops. As the temperatures start to fall Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning the storm may leave snow in alpine locations. This means that only the highest peaks will receive snow. 

Above the snow-rain line, reactive storm and wind slabs likely exist. Below the snow-rain line, a rain-soaked/ saturated snowpack will exist but form a firm crust as the temperatures drop.

The remainder of the snowpack is well-consolidated.

Terrain and Travel

  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Choose conservative terrain and watch for clues of instability.
  • Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.