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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 3rd, 2024–Mar 4th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

East Kakwa, Kakwa, Pine Pass, Tumbler.

Continue to choose conservative, low consequence terrain.

The Likelihood of triggering a persistent slab is uncertain.

Solar input will likely weaken this already scary snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

One natural size 1.5 wind slab avalanche was reported on Friday. This avalanche was likely the result of the winds shifting to the east.

Over the past week in the neighbouring region, many natural and skier triggered persistent slab avalanches occurred on the facets above the early-February melt-freeze crust described in the Snowpack Summary.

Snowpack Summary

Winds have come from a variety of directions over the past couple days. Wind effect could be found on all aspects.

30 to 55 cm overlies a layer of surface hoar in wind-sheltered terrain, weak facets, or a hard melt-freeze crust on south and west-facing slopes.

A thick and hard widespread crust that formed in early February is buried about 60 to 80 cm deep. This crust may have a layer of facets above it.

The eastern portion of this region is much shallower with a highly variable and wind effected snowpack.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Mostly clear with trace amounts of new snow. 10 to 25 km/h northeast alpine wind.  Treeline temperature -20°C.

Monday

Mostly sunny. 10 to 25 km/h west alpine wind. Treeline temperature  -13°C.

Tuesday

Sunny. 15 to 30 km/h southwest alpine wind. Treeline temperature -10°C.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny. 5 to 25 km/h southwest alpine wind. Treeline temperature -8°C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Conservative terrain selection is critical, choose only well supported, low consequence lines.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
  • Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow surface is moist or wet.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.