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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 28th, 2024–Feb 29th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Chic-Choc Mountains.

It's hard to predict exactly how the snowpack will react to the forecasted rain and heat, followed by the extremely rapid passage of a cold front on Thursday morning. One thing is certain: avalanches won't be the only danger in the mountains on Thursday.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported or observed.

If you go into the backcountry, thanks for sharing your observations on the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

The thaw and rain will have greatly humidified and affected the height of the snowpack on Thursday morning. With the expected cold front, we can expect a significant refreezing crust to form progressively over the course of the day.

Prior to the passage of this low-pressure system, a multitude of old, very hard wind slabs were to be found in the Alpine region and in wind-affected areas. These slabs rest either on very hard surfaces or on a fragile layer of facetted grains.

The middle of the snowpack is well consolidated, resting on the December 30 combo of flat-faced grains and crust. Flat-faced grains and depth hoar are developping at the base of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Synopsis: The rain and heat brought by the massive Great Lakes low will be followed by a major cold front that will rapidly drop temperatures on Thursday morning.

Wednesday evening and night: Occasionally heavy rain 20-30 mm. Southwest wind 60-90 km/h. High +3. Freezing level at 2500m.

Thursday: Snow early morning then cloudy. 3 to 6 cm. Wind northwest 40 to 70 km/h. Temperatures dropping rapidly to -20C.

Friday: Sunny. Wind northwest 40 to 50 km/h. Maximum -18C.

Saturday: Alternating sun and clouds. Wind southwest 20 to 40 km/h. High -2. Freezing level at 500m.

For more details, check out the most recent alpine weather forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy rain.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.