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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2025–Feb 16th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Elkford West.

Storm slabs have been reactive - start with conservative terrain and watch for signs of instability.

For the best and safest riding, seek out areas of soft snow sheltered from the wind.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, numerous small loose dry avalanches were observed in the Lizard Range.

On Friday, several small loose dry and storm slab avalanches were triggered by riders in the Lizard Range.

On Thursday, a small naturally triggered wind slab 5 to 15 cm deep was observed in a fan feature in the Lizard Range.

Looking forward, we expect the potential for triggering small storm slabs and loose dry avalanches will remain likely.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 25 cm of very low-density new snow from the last storm has formed small reactive slabs, especially in wind-loaded areas near ridgetops. An additional 10 to 15 cm may fall by the end of the day Sunday, increasing the potential for storm slabs.

The storm snow is sitting on 30 to 60 cm of faceted old snow. Combined, this overlies a persistent weak layer formed in late January which is a crust on sun-exposed slopes and surface hoar elsewhere. There is potential for storm slabs to step down to this deeper weak layer, triggering large avalanches.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled with no other layers of concern.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy with 3 to 8 cm of snow. 15 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -14 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of snow. 5 to 10 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -13 °C.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with 0 to 4 cm of snow. 5 to 15 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -14 °C.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and clouds. 15 to 25 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -15 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Keep your guard up as storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Approach steep and open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, as buried surface hoar may exist.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind-affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.