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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2021–Mar 17th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia.

Spring-like diurnal conditions exist and the rating reflects the highest hazard level anticipated during the day. Pay attention to steep south facing slopes as they heat up in the afternoon and destabilize. Give looming cornices a wide berth from above and below. 

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the Interior until Thursday bringing warmer temperatures and sunny skies. 

The typical spring-like diurnal weather pattern will hold afternoon alpine temperatures near -2 and freezing levels around 1500-2000 m. Overnight periods will see the freezing levels drop back to the valley bottom.

An approaching Pacific frontal system will move onto the coast Wednesday bringing unsettled weather and new snow to the Interior regions by Friday and through the weekend. 

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, numerous natural loose wet avalanches were reported from southerly aspects above 1900 m. Natural cornice fall continues in the region with no slab pulling from the slopes below. 

Isolated loose wet avalanches and cornice failures may continue in the afternoon with warming. Little change in this pattern is expected until Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Sunny skies and warm temperatures formed sun crusts on solar aspects and at all elevations and up to 2000 m on polar aspects. Dry snow still exists on north aspects at upper elevations. Large cornices loom over alpine ridgetops.

Persistent weak layers of surface hoar, crusts, and/or facets 80-120 cm down have recently been unreactive and no recent avalanches have been reported on these layers. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
  • Rocks will heat up with daytime warming and may become trigger points for loose wet avalanches

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.