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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 27th, 2015–Mar 28th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

Use caution in higher elevations where possibly greater new snow may accumulate, especially lee slopes near ridges. Watch for areas of wet snow at mid elevations, and during daytime warming.  

Detailed Forecast

A frontal passage Friday night should cause some new snow, but only light amounts are expected. Initial rain changing to snow should leave good bonding of new snow to the old wet snow surface. 

Watch for areas where new snow has been transported by wind to lee slopes at higher elevations along ridges. Also, watch for cornice development that may be soft and sensitive to trigger or release from daytime warming.  

Most areas near and below treeline in the Olympics do not have enough snow to cause an avalanche danger.

Snowpack Discussion

The storm snow from mid-March has melted in the Hurricane Ridge area and those areas below treeline, amid warm weather or rain events over the past two weeks, including the mid 50 degree sunshine the past few days. 

This has left the remaining snow, having undergone several melt-freeze cycles of late and should be well consolidated at this point. There have been no reports by rangers, or other observers, of any loose wet slide activity over the past few days.

The current snowpack, or lack of, should be well prepared to receive the small amounts of new snow expected over the next few days.

While the snowpack remains meager along Hurricane Ridge, there is likely only enough snow for avalanches near and above treeline on the higher peaks of the Olympics.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.