Colder temperatures will tighten up the snowpack below treeline, but with increasing wind and precipitation the hazard will increase to considerable in the alpine and treeline.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Cloudy with moderate snow falling along the divide this afternoon. Freezing levels hovering around 1800m. Forecasted winds are suppose to increase to 60 km/h gusting to 90 km/h overnight and lessening to 35 km/h tomorrow. Light snow is also forecasted to continue to tomorrow with freezing levels around valley bottom and alpine high temperatures at -7 °C.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanche observations.
Snowpack Summary
Moist and heavy snow above a well settled snowpack at Burnstall Pass today. Below treeline the snow was heavy and well supportive to ski travel. At treeline, 2200m, the recent snow was failing down 20cm, but results were not concerning. However, this will change if snow continues to fall over the next 48hrs. The Feb 11th layer was found down 30cm and failing during stability test. The Jan 6th layer was down 90cm and did not produce any failures in the snowpack, however, caution is advised as elevation is gained, or crossing under large slopes, due to increased wind loading. General snowpack height at 2200m was 193cm and well supportive.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.