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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 12th, 2014–Feb 13th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

We received variable amounts from 2-15cm with winds coming from all directions. Does not seem like allot but wind loading can quickly triple the depth. Give the storm snow a few days to heal. Won't take long with warm temperatures. 

Weather Forecast

Unsettled weather until Saturday. Expect 5-10cm on Thursday with another 5-10cm on Friday accompanied by light to gusting moderate ridgetop SW winds. Freezing levels will hover around 1000m with slight warming trend Friday and clearing skies on Saturday potentially spiking the temperature on solar aspects.

Snowpack Summary

A storm brought 10-15cm. It overlies a potential sliding layer 20cm down of surface facets/surface hoar. Variable wind directions are developing slabs on all aspects but pay particular attention to NE aspects where loading patterns could triple the slab thickness. A hard mid-pack is bridging weak basal facets at tree line and above.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported but visibility was minimal. Expecting some direct action storm snow avalanches in the alpine from this new snow plus what's going to accumulate and windload over the next few days.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Thursday

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.