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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2016–Mar 17th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Strong sunshine will increase avalanche danger during the day. Plan your route to minimize exposure to big sun-drenched slopes in the afternoon.

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. The freezing level is around 1000-1200 m. Ridge winds are light to moderate from the E-SE. FRIDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. The freezing level should jump to around 1700-1900 m and ridge winds are moderate from the E-SE. SATURDAY: Increasing cloud with a chance of flurries. The freezing level is around 1300 m and winds should be light.

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche activity has mainly involved natural and explosive-triggered cornice falls. In the far north of the region, a natural cornice release triggered a size 2.5 persistent slab avalanche on the early March surface hoar layer on Monday, and a size 2 cornice triggered persistent slab was also observed on Tuesday. Cornices and lingering slabs may become weak, and could even fail naturally during periods of strong sunshine. Loose wet sluffing is also expected from steep sun exposed slopes.

Snowpack Summary

20-30cm of new snow has accumulated over the last couple days in sheltered areas. Strong southerly winds have redistributed the surface snow forming wind slabs and adding mass to cornices. On south aspects, the recent storm snow may have buried a sun crust. Lower elevations are going through daily melt-freeze cycles. A layer of surface hoar or melt-freeze crust buried on March 3 is down 70-100cm and has been recently reactive in the areas north of Stewart. An older crust/facet layer buried in early February can now be found down over a meter but this layer has been dormant for several weeks.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.