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Confidence
Moderate - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
The last few centimetres of snow for a while are expected on Monday, with light to moderate northerly winds, before a shift to a cool, dry spell. Expect light northerly winds and a mix of sun and cloud on Tuesday and Wednesday.For more details check out https://avalanche.ca/weather.
Avalanche Summary
No avalanches have been reported recently in the Cariboos. In the neighbouring North Columbia region, a large natural slab failed on a deeply buried weak layer.
Snowpack Summary
You may encounter soft wind slabs near ridge tops, which could be sensitive to the weight of a person. As winds shift from southerly to northerly, be alert to the possibility of finding wind slabs on all aspects. Older wind slabs may be hidden under recent new snow.In sheltered areas, 10 -15 cm light dry snow has buried large surface hoar crystals. I'm unsure how widespread the surface hoar is across the region. 20-30 cm settled, dried-out powder lies below this. The mid- and lower snowpack are reportedly well settled. The early December weak layer (about a metre down) is now unlikely to be triggered, except perhaps with a very heavy trigger. At the base of the snowpack, on high north aspects, basal facets overlie glacial ice.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.