Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Dec 29, 2018Avalanche Canada
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Archived · expired 8 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable

Highlights

Heavy precipitation with an initially high freezing level will raise the avalanche danger to HIGH on Saturday.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Recent storm snow may not bond well to the snowpack. Deeper in the storm snow, reports suggest that about 60 cm of snow may not be bonding well to an underlying hard crust.
  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–1.5
    Rain at lower lower elevations will weaken the surface snow and increase the likelihood of triggering small loose wet avalanches in steep terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Wet snow or rain, accumulation 15-25 cm in the alpine and 15-25mm rain at lower elevations / Strong west wind / Alpine temperature 0 CSATURDAY: Wet snow or rain, accumulation 20-30 cm snow in the alpine or 20-30 mm rain at lower elevations / Moderate to strong southwest wind / Alpine temperature 2 C / freezing level 1500-2000mSUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with sunny breaks / Light to moderate northwest wind / Alpine temperature -3 C / Freezing level 700 mMONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light west wind / Alpine temperature -2 C / Freezing level 600m

Avalanche Summary

Recent storm snow was reported to be reactive on Wednesday and Thursday. This MIN report indicates that storm slab properties and small avalanches were observed throughout their tour near Mt. Seymour. Similar observations were reported in other regions of the North Shore on Thursday.Expect avalanche activity to increase over the weekend, as an incoming storm will drop substantial snowfall with strong winds and increasing freezing levels.

Snowpack Summary

30-40 cm of recent snow at the highest elevations in the region may not be bonding well to underlying surfaces. This is particularly the case in the north of the region, where the snow may have fallen on a weak layer of feathery surface hoar. The latest storm Friday night into Saturday may have come in quite warm where precipitation is rain resulting in moist or wet surface snow.Deeper, about 60 cm of recent snow sits on a thick melt-freeze crust. Reports indicate that the snow is bonding well to the crust in certain areas but may be slower to bond in other areas.The middle and lower snowpack are well-settled. Snow depths increase substantially with higher elevations. Expect to find about 200 cm at treeline elevations.

Regions covered