Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 7th, 2021 8:01AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

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Conservative decision making should still be applied today. Don't let the sunny skies and deep powder lure you into bigger, or steeper terrain features.

Summary

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will stall over Rogers Pass for the next few days bringing mostly dry conditions and light winds.

Today: Mainly sunny, no precipitation, Fl rising to 1000m and light wind.

Friday: Mainly sunny with isolated flurries, light SW winds and a FL of 1200m

Snowpack Summary

Rogers Pass has received approx 90cm of new snow at TL in 2021. This sits on a surface hoar layer, buried Dec 26, which is preserved in sheltered areas at and below treeline. The Dec 13 surface hoar can still be found down 120cm and the Dec 7 crust/facet/surface hoar (aspect/elevation dependent) layer is down 135+cm.

Avalanche Summary

Approx 15 avalanches were obs in the HWY corridor yesterday. Most of the avalanches happened in very steep or extreme alpine terrain, generally size 2-2.3 with one size 3 and one size 3.5. MIN report of storm slabs on Mcgill shoulder to size 2. Audibles were heard off of Mt Bonney, and naturals were also obs off Mt Cheops in Connaught to size 1.5.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

90cm of new snow fell in the last storm, accompanied by SW winds, and mild temps. These conditions built storm slabs in the alpine and exposed areas of TL. A Dec 26 surface hoar layer persists below this slab, in sheltered areas @ treeline and below.

  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
  • The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

Avalanche activity this weekend shows that large triggers (such as cornices and storm slabs) could still cause very large avalanches on these layers. These lower layers could wake up with a storm slab overloading them.

  • Be wary of large slopes that did not previously avalanche.
  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2.5 - 3.5

Valid until: Jan 8th, 2021 8:00AM