Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 28th, 2014 7:05AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Persistent Slabs.

matt.mueller, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Be aware of the "low probability high consequence" scenario in the alpine. Things are much better as a whole, but the alpine still deserves some caution. Don't forget to cover up and bring some extra tea to help cope with the -40 windchill!

Summary

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Cold. This predicted arctic front is expected to arrive tonight. But, our models suggest the temps may not be as cold as first predicted. The winds will be light to moderate which will amplify the cold. Wind chill could be as low as -40. The good news is that the skies will remain clear and the sun has enough power to take the edge off the cold.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were noted toady.

Snowpack Summary

The winds have shifted in the last 24hrs signalling the arrival of the cold air. The alpine snowpack has noticeably more wind effect today than yesterday. The existing windslabs have not seen a significant change, but the alpine has isolated pockets of reverse loaded windslabs can be added to the list of potential trouble layers near the surface. The real story is still the Feb 10th layer and its tricky nature. In most places the bond has significantly improved, but in certain terrain features that bond can be easily broken. Its a tough layer to trust right now. Lately the Oct 1027 crust/depth hoar has fallen off the radar. Its is worth reiterating that the basal layers are still considered weak and remain on our radar. Especially as the upper layers settle, facet or blow away, potentially exposing weak and thin spots. We've seen settlement rates of 5-10 cm's in the snow depths.Â Burstall Pass snow depth is 156cms.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Touchy slabs are found on this layer. Note that the aspect has grown to include SW. This is due to the N-NE wind pattern expected for the next while. Good terrain choices are critical right now. Avoid steep, convex or unsupported terrain.

Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Mar 1st, 2014 2:00PM