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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 11th, 2015–Jan 12th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Buried surface hoar has been responsible for many rider triggered avalanches recently and this instability is likely to be more reactive with warmer temperatures and sun shine. Avoid the temptation to be be lured onto larger slopes.

Weather Forecast

High pressure ridge over the Province will maintain mostly clear and dry conditions. Valley fog in most areas and clear above. Temperatures will warm up today to around -5 at 1700m. Mountain top winds will be calm to light. No precipitation is forecast until the end of this week.

Snowpack Summary

A sun crust up to 2cm thick is present on most solar aspects. Settling storm snow over the December 17th surface hoar down 60cm-100cm, still producing rider triggered avalanches. Crust/facet layers are present just below it with varying thicknesses depending on aspect and elevation. The Nov 9 crust is a 30cm basal layer close to or on the ground.

Avalanche Summary

Size 2.0 skier triggered avalanche in Loop Brook area, east aspect moraine feature, at 1700m, down ~60cm on the Dec 17 surface hoar layer, 4-6mm in size. 50m wide and 100m long.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The Dec 17 instability is still active and can be triggered by snow riders on convex rolls and steep terrain. The surface hoar sits on a thick crust, providing a bed surface for larger avalanches. This layer is widespread at treeline.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Loose Wet

Solar radiation could be a factor today, as temperatures are forecast to warm up with light to no wind. Loose avalanches beginning from cliffs and moist snow is an indication of this instability. Be aware of these changes through the day.
Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2