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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 21st, 2016–Jan 22nd, 2016
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Olympics.

Loose wet avalanches should be the main avalanche problem Friday with plenty of wet snow in the upper snowpack. Natural avalanches are unlikely but human triggered avalanches are possible on steeper slopes. Be especially wary near terrain traps, where even a small avalanche could have unintended consequences.

Detailed Forecast

Steady rain Thursday night should transition to light to moderate showers with snow levels falling to 4500 feet by Friday afternoon. Light amounts of new snow should bond well to the wet and refreezing surface on Friday. 

Loose wet avalanches should be the main avalanche problem Friday with plenty of wet snow in the upper snowpack. Natural avalanches are unlikely but human triggered avalanches are possible on steeper slopes. Be especially wary near terrain traps, where even a small avalanche could have unintended consequences.

Snowpack Discussion

A few inches of snow likely accumulated Monday through Wednesday, with the Waterhole NRCS snowdepth slowly rising to 76 inches through mid-week.  

A wet and warm frontal system drenched the Olympics Wednesday night and Thursday with snow levels rising above Hurricane Ridge. This likely caused a loose wet avalanche cycle on steeper slopes in all elevation bands. 

Hurricane Ridge weather station update: NWAC forecaster Garth Ferber was at Hurricane Ridge Thursday and with the help of NPS IT staff fixed the station! They established a connection Thursday afternoon and the data should start flowing online very soon.  We appreciate everyone's patience and believe that our new internet connection to the weather station will prove to be far more reliable than the aging microwave it replaced last spring. 

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1