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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 1st, 2019–Jan 2nd, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Some new snow is headed this way on Friday but until then...  The weak base will be an issue all year.  Patience is a virtue.  Things will get better with more snow!

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Not much changing.  No new snow is expected over the next 24hrs with temperatures being warmer than average (-5C at 1800m).  Winds will begin to increase out of the W later in the afternoon on wednesday into the moderate to strong range.

Avalanche Summary

1 new sz 2.5 natural avalanche on a W aspect above Rummel lake.  The slab was seen from a distance so details are scant.  It appeared to fail below a steep cliff band. 

Snowpack Summary

Pockets of fresh wind slab are found at upper elevations in lee and cross-loaded terrain, but these slabs are not widespread in distribution. Forecasters continue to have low confidence in the snowpack with 50 to 60cm of medium to high density snow overlying a very weak base of up to 50cm of facets. This is the perfect combination for avalanches. Despite a lack of recent naturally triggered avalanches, there is strong potential for human triggering with the current snowpack structure. Unfortunately, this state of affairs will be with us for some time to come.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

The basal layers are very weak. An avalanche initiated in the upper snowpack could step down to the bottom of the snowpack. Unfortunately, this situation is here to stay for the foreseeable future.
Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.Be cautious in shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to weak layers at the base of the snowpack.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Wind Slabs

Expect these in immediate lee areas. They will be most reactive to human triggering on steep rolls or unsupported terrain.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5