Avalanche Forecast

In most parts of the state, a stout melt freeze crust was formed when it rained to high elevations around Thanksgiving. The one exception to this event was in the East North Zone, where the precipitation from the Thanksgiving storm was all snow. A quick storm at the end of November put a small amount of snow above the melt-freeze crust, and preserved the older basal facets in the northeastern areas.

Cold and clear weather dominated the first week in December, with valley fog and very cold temperatures east of the crest. The surface snow sat around and decomposed. Surface hoar grew large on top of this.

The jet stream took aim at the Pacific Northwest in the 2nd week of December.  Most notably, light storms buried and preserved a widespread layer of surface hoar and/or near surface facets on december 9th. From December 9th to December 23rd, storms kept coming. Freezing levels fluctuated, but never moved much above 5000ft throughout the Cascades (although the southernmost volcanoes and Mt. Hood saw rain well above 6000).

Initially, the storm track favored the northern zones. The accompanying avalanche cycle began on December 11th. Most of these slides were soft slabs, but some propagated widely on the December 9th layer. Higher snowfall totals in the West North resulted in very large (D3+) avalanches in the mountains along Hwy 542.

A second, and larger avalanche cycle occurred during heavy snowfall and strong wind events between December 18th and 20th. Although these cycles were once again most prevalent in the northern and eastern zones, big storm totals around Mt. Rainier tipped the balance down south as well. This 2nd cycle was impressive, with very large and destructive avalanches (some D4) reported. The culprit was once again the December 9th surface hoar/facets (and/or the basal facets in the northern and eastern zones).

Today we have a large difference in snowpack depths between the Pacific Crest and the Eastern Slope. This is nothing unusual, as more often than not the west side of the Cascades and the passes get more snow than areas further east. Moving forward, places with a deep snowpack (say greater than 5ft) and warmer temperatures may continue to gain strength. Areas with a shallow snowpack (say less than 3.5ft) may take much longer. In a general and applied sense, this means the avalanche danger/conditions may begin to diverge between the western and eastern zones.  

As the skies clear and we move into high pressure, take note as to which avalanche paths have run large on deep, weak layers, and those which haven’t. Be sure to track surface conditions, as this next period of cold, clear weather may create the next weak layer when the storm track does turn back toward us. As always, please share your photos and experiences with us!

Happy Holidays

A warm front draped off the coast of Washington and British Columbia will continue moisture and warm air into the region as it over-runs colder air Friday night. With temperatures already hovering around freezing at Snoqualmie Pass on Wednesday afternoon, snow totals will be limited, but 2-4" are possible before a transition to all rain. Stevens Pass might pick up a few more inches as it transitions to rain closer to 10 PM.

The warm front will weaken and move eastward, but the Pacific Northwest will remain in the warm sector of the storm with lighter precipitation Saturday morning before a cold frontal rainband arrives from the NW during the afternoon hours and progresses SE through the evening hours bringing moderate to heavy rain. Winds will increase through the day on Saturday, peaking with the frontal passage in the early evening hours in the moderate to strong range. 

Decreasing light snow showers will continue later Saturday night and Sunday on a moist N-NW flow with rapidly lowering snow levels. Snoqualmie Pass should expect a transition back to snow around 10 PM as winds shift N-NW. 

Overall, the storm will bring will bring significant water to the mountains with 1-4" of snow water equivalent across the west slopes of the Cascades, much of which will fall in liquid form.