Avalanche Forecast

Expect anywhere from 4" to 8" of new snow on Wednesday with a cooling trend and strong westerly winds. The snow will fall on a range of surfaces including dry settled snow, old wind board, and refrozen crusts. On Tuesday, an observer on Dirtyface found substantially wind effected snow, but wind slabs were stubborn and snow surfaces were moist up to 5,500ft. There was very little accumulation from the storm that was forecasted for Monday night. 

The last high elevation rain event was in early February. You may still find the crust from this event near the surface in isolated areas. There may be faceted snow associated with it, especially where it is shallowly buried. There are a couple of potentially preserved layers of buried surface hoar or near surface facets in the upper 3 ft of the snowpack. Take the time to assess these layers if venturing into larger and more remote terrain.

February 27, 2020 (The regional synopsis is updated every Thursday @ 6 pm)

In the lead up to last weekend, dry, clear and cold conditions produced surface hoar in many areas as well as faceted snow (check out the National Avalanche Center’s encyclopedia for more details). These weak grain types were not difficult to find and recreationists and professionals across the region began to wonder what role these weak snow surfaces would play when the next storm arrived.

Surface Hoar was not difficult to observe during this period of high pressure. This picture is from 2/21 on an SSE aspect, 5,000’ at Stevens Pass just a day before it may have been buried. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

We didn’t have to wait too long, as a major storm arrived on Sunday 2/23, creating dangerous avalanche conditions for most zones. This system dropped close to 2’ of snow at Mt. Baker while areas to the south along the west slopes of the Cascades saw closer to 1 foot. Areas along the east slopes of the Cascades also saw significant new snow amounts with Blewett Pass and Mission Ridge receiving around 6-8” of fresh snow. 

The wind was also a major factor with this storm from about Stevens Pass southward. Multiple stations recorded winds over 80mph and some went over 100mph. This wind was enough to strip surfaces down to old crusts on windward aspects, leaving leeward aspects with wind slabs and touchy cornices. In the case of Mt. Hood, relentless winds this season have stripped the snow down to blue ice from one of our previous atmospheric river events, creating slide for life conditions on certain slopes. 

The old snow interface, termed 2/22 for the day it was buried, has us thinking hard about the snowpack moving forward. In the northern part of the region, less wind allowed for more storm than wind slabs, with avalanches that released on both interstorm layers and on the buried 2/22 interface for a day or two following the storm. As you moved further southward or eastward, reactivity on the 2/22 interface was trending downward or non-existent after a natural avalanche cycle that immediately followed the storm. Was the storm potent enough to wipe out the surface hoar and facets? There was a surprising natural avalanche on Stevens Pass during the evening of Monday 2/24, which is suspected to have run on small facets. This avalanche and continued snowpack observations around the region proves that in specific areas, reactive weak snow still existed. 

This natural avalanche failed 2ft deep on the 2/22 interface on a SE aspect near 5700ft on Cowboy Mountain. 02/25/20. Photo: Stevens Pass Ski Patrol

On Tuesday, the sun started to shine in some locations, bringing back the threat of wet avalanches and again making us wonder about how warming would affect the 2/22 interface. We never reached the tipping point for widespread wet avalanche activity, but rollerballs and snow shedding off trees and rocks were certainly present in many zones. Drizzle or light snow made an appearance on Wednesday along many west-side zones. Thursday saw a return to warm temperatures and sunny skies all the way from Mt. Hood to Stevens Pass with cooler and cloudier conditions for the North Cascades. All in all, it was a quiet week avalanche-wise and the 2/22 wasn't activated. 

We have one more dry mild day before we move into a stormy Saturday. During this stretch, we’ll continue to monitor buried weak snow grains for distribution and reactivity. Check your local forecast zone for the latest.