Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast incoming weather.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear and cold, with alpine temperatures dipping to around -12 C.

TUESDAY: A clear start with clouds increasing through the day. Light variable winds. Alpine high temperature -3 C. Freezing level 1400 m.

WEDNESDAY: Light snow, 2-5 cm. Light to moderate southwesterly winds. Alpine high temperature -3 C. Freezing level 1400 m.

THURSDAY: Isolated flurries. Light to moderate westerly winds. Alpine High temperature -3 C. Freezing level 1200 m.

On Sunday, only small loose dry avalanches were noted in steep terrain.

On Saturday, one size 2 wind slab on an east aspect and one size 1.5 cornice release on a northeast aspect were noted, both in the alpine.

Last week there were several notable reports of large human triggered persistent slab avalanches in the Dogtooth Range and Quartz Creek area. See these MIN reports here and here. The likelihood of triggering on these layers has since gone down, but it's still worth considering the potential for a similar release to occur.

Dry soft snow can be found on shaded aspects above around 1500 m. On south-facing slopes and at lower elevations expect crusty snow in the morning and soft moist snow in the afternoon. Recent wind slabs and cornices still pose a hazard close to steep ridgelines.

Persistent weak layers were reactive last week, particularly in the northern end of the Purcells. The layers of concern are a buried layer of surface hoar that formed in late January is 30-60 cm deep and an older surface hoar layer is 50-100 cm deep at treeline. These layers may exist as a combination of facets and crusts at other elevations. Recent assessments indicate the chance of triggering these layers has reduced, but writing them off completely is probably premature.

Shallow rocky areas where the snowpack is thin likely have sugary facets acting as a weak layer at the base of the snowpack.

• Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
• Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
• Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.