Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Coast.
The recent snow and cornices may be reactive as they warm up during the heat of the day.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.
Weather Forecast
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall then clearing, accumulation 5 cm, 30 km/h west wind, treeline temperature -3 C, freezing level 1000 m.
SUNDAY: Mix of sun and clouds, 20 km/h north wind, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level rising to 1100 m.
MONDAY: Clear skies, 20 km/h north wind, treeline temperature 1 C, freezing level rising to 2300 m.
TUESDAY: Clear skies, 20 km/h northwest wind, treeline temperature 3 C, freezing level 2500 m.
Avalanche Summary
No reports of avalanche activity were available at the time of publishing, but it is likely that storm and wind slab avalanches were triggerable on Saturday at high elevations. This snow will likely still be triggerable on Sunday, if you climb high enough to find it.
Snowpack Summary
You may find anywhere from 10 to 20 cm of snow from Saturday's storm above around 1400 m, with the most in the north of the region. The snow fell with strong southerly wind, so wind slabs may be found at high elevations on northerly aspects. The snow overlies a hard melt-freeze crust, so it could take a few days to bond to it. If sunny skies prevail on Sunday, the snow may moisten on sun-exposed slopes. Below around 1400 m, the snow is likely wet or has frozen into a hard melt-freeze crust.
Cornices are large and looming along ridgelines. Their release is unpredictable, requiring a large berth if you're travelling above or below them.
Terrain and Travel
- Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
- The new snow may require another day to settle and stabilize.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
- Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow surface is moist or wet.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Around 10 to 20 cm of recent snow above 1400 m may take a bit of time to bond to an underlying hard melt-freeze crust. The wind likely blew some of the snow into wind slabs in lee terrain features. Assess for the bond of this new snow and for slab properties before committing to consequential avalanche terrain.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Cornices are large and looming along many ridgelines, and have likely grown with the recent snow and wind. They become increasingly weak when the sun comes out and freezing levels rise. They require a large berth when travelling above and below them.
Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Loose Wet
The recent snow may moisten and form wet loose avalanches on sun-exposed slopes if clear skies prevail.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2