Avalanche Forecast

Observations continue to be limited in the West Central zone, leading to a higher than normal degree of uncertainty. What we do know is that we just received a huge volume of water in a relatively short amount of time, with several natural avalanches reported. We also know that the snowpack changes as you go up in elevation, particularly above ~5000 feet where precipitation was predominantly snow during the storm. This storm dropped it’s large water numbers on an early season snowpack near and above treeline and on mostly bare ground and spotty snow cover below treeline. 

In adjacent zones, persistent avalanches have been reported at some point during or following the last storm. In the West Central zone, we do not have any confirmation of the existence of the persistent weak layer responsible, but it bears mentioning for terrain above ~5000 feet. Where present, a large load now sits atop this weak layer, which resides about a foot off the ground and is generally found on West, North, and East aspects near and above treeline. In some areas, slopes have not yet reached their tipping point. Determining which slopes are about to reach their tipping point is a very difficult task. If you trigger an avalanche, it could be 3-6ft deep, break on slopes as low as 30 degrees, and wrap around features in the terrain. While snowpack tests can confirm this layer’s presence, they can not prove its absence. Don’t rely on a snowpit to interpret stability. 

If you travel near and above treeline, use caution on slopes 35 degrees and steeper, convexities, and unsupported slopes where you could trigger avalanches more easily. In adjacent zones, wind loading and newly formed cornices have been reported. Look for changing conditions Thursday afternoon as a front approaches. Evidence of recent avalanches, whoomfing, and shooting cracks are red flag indicators of instability. At lower elevations, there just isn’t enough soft snow to form an avalanche hazard. Instead, expect difficult travel conditions with refreezing snow, exposed objects, and open creeks.

If you are out in the West Central zone, let us know what you see. Please submit your observations to our website.

New Regional Synopsis coming soon. We update the Regional Synopsis every Thursday at 6 pm.