Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Avalanche hazard will decrease on Thursday, but continue to pay attention to loose wet snow that may create a small avalanche and mitigate overhead exposure to large cornices. Large glide cracks may exist and may be hazardous in the terrain..
Detailed Forecast
Cooler temperatures, mostly cloudy weather leading to partial afternoon sunshine, and windy conditions on Monday will limit wet snow problems on Monday.
Wet snow will take some time to firm up and temperatures will remain mild or slightly above freezing most of the day on Thursday, so you still may be able to trigger a small loose wet avalanche in the terrain on Thursday. Check the depth of your boot or ski penetration. At all elevations, avoid steeper solar slopes where wet, slushy snow becomes deeper than a few inches.
Large cornices exists primarily on NW-SE aspects along ridgelines in the Hurricane Ridge area. Recent mild air temperatures and rain have made these massive blocks of snow more likely to fail. After a several days of cooler weather, additional warm temperatures through Thursday morning will increase the likelihood of failure, so continue to give cornices a wide berth and avoid travel directly below corniced slopes.Â
Several glide cracks have been reported by NPS rangers. At this point these cracks should be more of a terrain hazard than an avalanche problem.
Snowpack Discussion
Light rain was seen Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning along with mild temperatures caused wet surface snow conditions over the weekend. Since this time, temperatures cooled to near freezing Monday, before a warming trend took hold Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures reaching into the 40's Wednesday. Further snow melt has occurred, but not much more settlement.
The recent warm and wet weather has allowed water to drain through the snowpack to produced glide cracks on slopes with smooth ground surfaces. Observations indicate glide cracks in common locations such as 20th of June, Steeple, and the Steep-and-Icy avalanche paths.
Large cornices developed during the last two weeks of January along ridgelines near and above treeline.
Observations
NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald and NPS Rangers traveled in the Mt Angeles areas Friday. They observed moist to wet surface snow up to 6000 feet. Wet loose avalanches were seen releasing during sunny breaks around mid-day. They identified and avoided traveling near or below large cornices.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 1 - 1