Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to variable snopack conditions

A weakening cold front associated with the big weekend storm slides across the region Monday night persisting into Tuesday. The Purcell's will receive light precipitation out of the system; I'm not expecting more than 10 cm by the end of the day Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure builds in Tuesday afternoon bringing dry conditions and lowering freezing levels down to valley bottom by Tuesday evening. Moderate to strong winds will be blowing out of the NW Tuesday in exposed locations. Expect a daytime high of -6 with an overnight low of -9 @ 1500m. Wednesday looks to be cool and dry with no precipitation expected.

A skier was killed in a size 3 avalanche in the Molar area of the Dogtooth range near Golden on Friday. The 4th skiers on the slope triggered the slide. On Saturday a skier triggered a size 3 avalanche in the alpine, the crown averaged 100cm in depth & the avalanche was reported to have run full path. The group had been skiing in the area all day without result until the accident happened. Avalanche activity on Sunday was confined to operational explosive use & produced avalanches to Size 2 on high elevation NE facing slopes.

The latest batch of storms has delivered around 50 cm of snow to the region. In some locations the new snow rests on top of a surface hoar layer buried January 3rd. Strong southwesterly winds have redistributed the new snow into windslabs that can be found on NW through SE facing slopes at and above treeline. Widespread crossloading is present throughout the region. A rain / melt/freeze crust formed by recent warm temperatures can be found as high as 1600m. The mid-December surface hoar layer continues to be a player, it's now buried 80 - 140 cm below the snow surface. Very weak snow near the ground is also a concern and while it has not been reactive recently, triggering a full depth avalanche near the ground is within the realm of possibilities right now.