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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 22nd, 2014–Dec 23rd, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Purcells.

It's easy to trigger avalanches right now. Conditions are expected to deteriorate further before Christmas. Play safe.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Expect moderate snowfall on Tuesday (5-20cm) with moderate to strong south-westerly winds and freezing level around 1200m. A cooler northwest flow may bring light snow or flurries on Wednesday and Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, several size 2-2.5 naturally-triggered avalanches were reported. Storm slabs were also triggered by explosives and a skier. Both failed on buried surface hoar.

Snowpack Summary

Anywhere from 20-60cm of recent storm snow overlies a touchy layer of buried surface hoar, which sits on a crust below about 2100m. Winds from the north-west through south-west have created wind slabs, which are very reactive where they overlie the buried surface hoar. A lower layer of surface hoar is also reactive at the northern end of the range, buried down about 40cm. A hard rain crust with facets from early November is buried over 1 m down and is still reactive to light loads in some locations.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent new snow has built slabs over a touchy layer of buried surface hoar crystals, creating dangerous avalanche conditions.
Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features by sticking to ridges and ribs.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

In some parts of the region, large avalanches have been failing on a deeply buried weak layer.
Conditions may be worse in the north of the region, so get to know your local snowpack.>Avoid common trigger zones including thin snowpack areas, near rocky outcrops, and steep alpine slopes.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 5